Intelligence agencies for the United States, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand are warning that advanced AI models capable of wreaking havoc in the cyber domain are “months away” from being publicly available.

In a joint statement, the Five Eyes alliance say they expect the kind of advanced hacking capabilities provided by frontier models like Anthropic’s Fable 5 and OpenAI’s Daybreak to become broadly available the public within the year, despite efforts by AI companies to withhold them or restrict their access.

“Frontier Al models are anticipated to exceed current industry expectations, fundamentally transforming both offensive and defensive cyber capabilities,” the agencies said. “The timeline is not years, it is months.”

The statement, which included signatures from NSA’s Director of the Cybersecurity Directorate David Imbordino and acting CISA Director Nick Andersen, does not specifically cite secret or classified sources or methods to reach this conclusion.

But much of the underlying justification provided by the intelligence agencies also aligns with what public cybersecurity and AI experts have been warning about for months.

AI models capable of exploiting cybersecurity weaknesses are already available today through multiple channels: older commercial models, open-source versions, or foreign and black-market sources. And while newer models like Mythos are reportedly significantly more powerful for cybersecurity-related tasks, the breakneck pace of frontier model development often means that yesterday’s restricted frontier AI is tomorrow’s free, open-source AI.

Representative Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., Chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, said the warning from intelligence agencies “underscores what the Committee has repeatedly heard through roundtables, briefings, and hearings with industry leaders: China is just months, if not now weeks, away from achieving frontier AI capabilities comparable to those of the United States.”

“This threat reinforces the urgency of ensuring that federal agencies and critical infrastructure operators can responsibly leverage advanced U.S. models, and receive the guidance and support necessary to do so, to find vulnerabilities before adversaries can exploit them,” said Garbarino in a statement.”

The agencies flag legacy systems, sluggish patching loops, unnecessary internet connectivity, weak identity and access controls, and a lack of pre-incident planning by organizations as key weaknesses that AI will excel at exploiting.

“The rapid pace of frontier AI development means cyber risk assumptions can become outdated in months, not years,” the agencies wrote. “We must act before and be prepared to adapt and withstand evolving threats.”

Since large language models burst onto the scene, open-source models have run about 6-8 months behind the largest frontier AI companies.

To give an idea of how quickly the field develops: the capabilities described in the Amazon threat intelligence report that convinced the Trump administration to place export controls on Fable 5 could already be accomplished through older models like Claude Opus and Claude Sonnet, as well as open-source Chinese models.

Anthropic shut down access to their Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models as a result, and despite releasing a statement that they believe the White House decision was a “misunderstanding” the dispute remains resolved.

Programs like Anthropic’s Project Glasswing and OpenAI’s Trusted Access for Cyber Program provide AI systems to organizations for cyberdefense.  The goal is to give defenders a head start in finding and fixing vulnerabilities before AI systems can exploit them routinely in the coming years.

However, for all the fear surrounding the new technology, the recommended guidance is largely the same as it has been for decades. Governments, businesses and leaders must stop treating the digital security of their work as an afterthought or compliance issue.

“Success will come from getting the basics right, acting quickly, and integrating cyber security into core business strategy,” the agencies wrote. “Those that do not will face growing operational and strategic disadvantage.”

06/23/2026: This story was updated to include comment from Rep. Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y.

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Members of Congress responded with skepticism and caution Tuesday to the Trump administration’s decision to impose export controls on Anthropic’s newest AI models.

The Friday order, which Anthropic said forced it to disable its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 artificial intelligence models, was prompted by what the administration said were national security concerns that a large number of cybersecurity professionals have dismissed as ill-founded.

Several Hill Democrats told CyberScoop they were concerned that the administration’s decision was driven by other considerations. Notably, the administration has feuded with Anthropic over use of its models for domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons.

Sen. Angus King, a Maine independent who caucuses with Democrats, said he would need to be convinced it was a legitimate national security order and hadn’t yet seen a full justification.

“What they did was pretty extreme, and I’d want to see what the basis was, as opposed to all the other issues that are swirling around in cybersecurity,” he said. “I’m a little skeptical because of their otherwise announced antipathy to this company.”

Leaders of the House Homeland Security Committee had contrasting takes, with Chairman Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., offering a two-pronged response and the top Democrat on the panel, Bennie Thompson of Mississippi, panning the order.

“The administration is right to treat advanced AI cyber capabilities as a national security issue, especially when foreign adversaries and cybercriminals are actively looking for ways to weaponize these tools,” Garbarino said in a statement. “At the same time, we need to make sure our response does not unintentionally disadvantage American companies, allied partners, or critical infrastructure defenders who need access to the best secure tools available in order to protect our networks here at home.”

The United States, not China, needs to set standards for trusted AI, Garbarino said.

But Thompson said the order adds evidence to the appearance that the Trump administration doesn’t “have a coherent plan for mitigating the cybersecurity risks” of frontier AI models, he told CyberScoop in a statement.

“AI regulations should rely on standards and procedures that provide confidence to the public that decisions are based on the evidence and not on politics,” he said. “Instead, the Trump administration has adopted an ad hoc approach where decisions are made by political appointees in the White House rather than experts and where companies are left guessing on how to comply.”

Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, had also previously highlighted the administration’s quarrel with Anthropic in response to the order in a statement to CyberScoop.

Behind the scenes, the administration and Anthropic were reportedly continuing to try to forge a truce Tuesday. More broadly, the administration’s AI executive order had a rocky rollout as the administration swung back-and-forth on how involved the government should be.

Some lawmakers deferred on commenting Tuesday, such as Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rand Paul, R-Ky., who told CyberScoop he didn’t have anything to say on the order.

Others said they were still seeking information from the administration.

“I have not had the opportunity to get a brief specifically as to the logic, the reasoning behind it, and so forth,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, the South Dakota Republican who chairs the Armed Services Subcommittee on Cybersecurity. “So I’m going to withhold judgment until I get an opportunity to get the rest of the story, so to speak.”

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Last Friday, the Trump administration sent a shock through the tech ecosystem when the Department of Commerce levied export controls on Anthropic’s new AI model Fable 5.

Anthropic has taken steps to limit the risks around the commercial sale of its Mythos model, including declining to release it publicly, funneling it to organizations for cyber defense and developing guardrails for Fable 5 that would default its answers to older, less powerful models around sensitive topics like cybersecurity and biological warfare.

But the Trump administration was reportedly alarmed by recent reports from Amazon and another cybersecurity researcher claiming to have jailbroken Fable 5 within days of its public release, and determined that if researchers in the U.S. could jailbreak the model, so could America’s foreign adversaries.

The Commerce Department’s decision spurred Anthropic to shut off the models for all users as they attempted to convince the White House to change course.

But some cybersecurity and AI experts have sharply disagreed with the White House’s actions, saying the research has not demonstrated that anyone has been able to circumvent Fable 5’s safeguards and access the kind of dangerous new capabilities that have worried officials.

Katie Moussouris, a well-known cybersecurity expert, said Monday that Anthropic provided her with a copy of third-party research on guardrail bypass techniques for Fable 5.

According to Moussouris, the researchers asked three Claude models – Fable 5, Mythos and Claude Opus – to review batches of known, vulnerable open source code for security issues. Fable 5 initially refused the request, but the researchers were able to use “a multistep and manual process” to get Fable 5 to turn the output into automated scripts that could test patches for the vulnerability.

Third-party research since Fable 5’s release has not found ways to bypass its safeguards around hacking. The capabilities researchers have demonstrated are foundational to what makes Fable 5 and other frontier models valuable for cybersecurity defense.

“Defenders need to be able to ask AI to fix the bugs in a file, explain why the fix matters, and write tests that confirm the patch works,” she wrote. “That is not a guardrail bypass. It is the most valuable thing an AI model can do for defensive security: executing the find, fix, and test loop defenders run every day.”

Moussouris previously provided technical expertise to the Waasenaar Agreement, a voluntary multilateral security agreement around controlling exports for both munitions and dual use technology that includes the U.S. and dozens of other countries.  Based on the research she’s seen, she called placing export restrictions on all foreign sales of Fable 5 “heavy handed” and “misguided.”

Some lawmakers who in favor of higher regulations and scrutiny on the national security implications of AI were nevertheless critical of the White House decision. Senator Mark Warner, D-Va., told CyberScoop in a statement that while “there may be circumstances where restrictions on the export of frontier AI models are warranted,” those decisions must be “grounded in a transparent, risk-based process with clear rules and consistent standards.”

The Trump administration’s approach, he argued, has been the opposite, and he called for Congress to pass a statutory framework for testing and approving frontier AI models based on transparency, predictability and fairness.

“This administration has repeatedly shown a willingness to weaken export controls designed to protect our national security and maintain our technological edge over adversaries, while also making no secret of its hostility toward Anthropic,” said Warner. “That raises serious questions about whether this effort is being driven by objective national security concerns or something else.”

Anthropic said it subjected Fable 5 to 1,000 hours of testing from internal and external red team, reporting that no universal jailbreaks were found that would remove those guardrails or allow the model to access Mythos for cyber and biology work.

Moussouris is far from alone. She is one of dozens of cybersecurity experts who signed an open letter Monday calling on the Trump administration to “Free Fable.”    

The researchers say that while Mythos-class models are “quite good” at identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities in software code, they “are not uniquely good” compared to other frontier models they use every day for cybersecurity defense.

For example, despite OpenAI’s Daybreak model offering similar vulnerability discovery and patching capabilities. It was not included in the Commerce Department’s restrictions.

The researchers also note that Fable 5’s guardrails have been notoriously oversensitive compared to other frontier models used by red teamers, becoming “a source of humor in the cyber community on launch day” as IT and cyber workers reported online that they couldn’t get the model to perform basic defensive cybersecurity tasks.

The letter questions whether the issues found in the jailbreaking reports would even qualify as offensive capabilities, and note they can be reproduced in other commercial and open-source models, including GPT 5.5, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet and Chinese models like Kimi 2.7.

“The justification for this unprecedented action was that Fable provides a unique ‘uplift’ of capabilities beyond other AI models, but AI has been finding bugs and generating working exploits at superhuman levels since last year,” they wrote.

The White House decision comes as AI companies face increasing backlash from a public that is now overwhelming calling for more robust government intervention.

A Johns Hopkins University poll in May found broad, bipartisan support for AI regulations, with 73% calling for bans on AI-generated images and video, 68% calling for labels on AI content, 75% wanting disclosure laws around when they interact with AI chatbots and 70% calling for “the right to interact with a human rather than an AI in medical, legal, educational and government settings.”

Another global survey of 18,000 people released this week found that the top four concerns most people have around AI all revolve around the tool’s ability to spread misinformation, create deepfakes to embarrass or hurt others, making it easier for criminals to hack into victim networks and helping terrorists create new weapons.

Senior reporter Tim Starks contributed reporting for this story.

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Earlier this year, Anthropic executives said that their new AI model, Claude Mythos, had such powerful capabilities for harm that they would not release it publicly.

On Tuesday, the company said it was making an altered version of Mythos available to the public, promising “new guardrails” that thwart the model’s best-in-class performance in hacking and bioweapons research.

Anthropic said Claude Fable 5 was the “same underlying model” as Mythos, but its responses for certain topics like cybersecurity and biology will be drawn from a previous Claude Opus model that is already public.

“Releasing a model this capable comes with risks. Without safeguards, Fable 5’s capabilities in areas like cybersecurity could be misused to cause serious damage,” the company said in a draft blog sent to CyberScoop ahead of the announcement. “We’ve therefore launched the model with safeguards that route queries on a narrow set of topics to our next-most-capable model, Claude Opus 4.8.”

Anthropic also said they subjected Fable 5 to both internal and external red team testing for common model vulnerabilities, like jailbreaking. Anthropic said these tests identified no known “universal” jailbreaking techniques, but does not specify if partial jailbreaking techniques were discovered.  

The company is betting that won’t change when Fable 5 is made available to the broader public, but it’s worth noting that cybersecurity researchers have consistently found ways to jailbreak older AI models.

“The uplift from Mythos-level capabilities is valuable to many adversaries—for instance, those who could financially gain from cyberattacks—and we therefore expect them to be motivated to try to circumvent our safety measures,” the company wrote.

Anthropic is changing its data retention policies for Fable and Mythos models, keeping all user traffic for 30 days on both its own platforms and third-party services. A White House executive order creates a voluntary framework for AI companies to share frontier models with the government up to 30 days before public release. The company says the retained data won’t be used to train new Claude models or for “any non-safety-related-purpose.”

Following publication, a spokesperson for Anthropic told CyberScoop the company’s data retention policies “are specific to their safeguards work and is unrelated to the EO.”

Most organizations are still deciding whether to adopt AI into their IT and cybersecurity ecosystem.  But models like Mythos can scan for vulnerabilities, chain together exploits, and steal data from a victim network in minutes. Automation in hacking existed before AI, but experts have said frontier models like Mythos and OpenAI’s Daybreak can allow even low-level cybercriminals to wreak havoc.

While Anthropic cited its commitment to developing safe and secure AI in its reasons for not publicly releasing Mythos, many organizations have been clamoring for access, and its enhanced cybersecurity functions in cybersecurity and other areas have been the subject of congressional hearings, national security papers and White House executive orders.

Releasing a limited version of the model in Fable 5 represents an attempt to split the difference between those two desires. Anthropic said it would release follow up benchmarks and assets for the model.

So what can Fable 5 do? 

Anthropic said it’s possible the restrictions built into Fable will make it harder for the model to fulfill both malicious and legitimate user requests.

“Because we have prioritized safety, we’ve deliberately tuned the safeguards to be cautious, and they are still stricter than would be ideal—for example, sometimes benign requests will trigger our classifiers,” the company wrote. “We recognize that this will be frustrating to some users, and our aim is to reduce false positives as we update and refine the safeguards after launch.”

If Fable 5 draws its cybersecurity and biology answers entirely from Claude Opus 4.8, it will still provide users with impressive – though not unique – dual use cybersecurity capabilities.

According to the system card published for Opus 4.8, the model is a slight improvement on previous models like 4.7 in the realm of cybersecurity but was “generally much less capable than Mythos Preview.”

Opus 4.8 was tested on its ability to write complete end-to-end exploits and build exploit primitives that provide attackers with the ability to execute arbitrary code. It averaged a score just 5 out of 16 in proficiency, compared to Mythos Preview which scored closer to 10.

Without safety guardrails in place, Opus 4.8 can still reproduce nearly 80% of previously discovered vulnerabilities in real open-source software projects when given a high level description of the weakness. The system card said Anthropic’s unspecified safeguards whittle this success rate down to 1%.

Another test assessing Opus’ ability to develop exploits for the popular Firefox browser found that, again without guardrails, the model could identify a full working exploit 8.8% of the time and a partial working exploit 68.8% of the time.

The company also said that members of Project Glasswing – a consortium of public and private businesses given access to a preview version of Mythos – will be able to upgrade to the latest full model, Claude Mythos 5, to continue their work. Access to Mythos 5 will be expanded over time “through a more systematic trusted-access program” including federal agencies.

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